Sunday, October 21, 2012

Gallup Showing a Romney Trend

The latest poll from Gallup is out and for the sixth time in a row, Romney is 50% or over:

You can download the complete trend here.

That said, I'm notorious for saying that I don't pay attention to the polls.  Much.  I mean, I don't think that we can dismiss them when they don't report what we want them to, then suddenly applaud them when they do.  I think they're just a snapshot of what is happening at the moment and that is all.

Yet then there are trends.

You can play with the electoral map here.

Rasmussen has it Romney 49%, Obama 47% today.

Donald Douglas breaks down the WSJ/NBC poll here:

Mr. Romney has pulled abreast of the president for the first time all year in the Journal poll, erasing a three-point lead among likely voters that Mr. Obama had in late September and a five-point lead earlier that month. Mr. Romney's surge followed his strong debate performance in Denver early this month and a contentious second debate with Mr. Obama last week. 

Donald rightly points out that this election will probably come down to "state by state efforts to get out the vote."

Doug Ross is feeling pretty good about Ohio:

Ohio represents a make-or-break state for both campaigns. And Hamilton County is the bellwether for the state, if the experts are to be believed. Using the 2010 results, Ohio's old District 1 very well could be a lock for Mitt Romney. And if the old OH-1 results hold, Mitt Romney is going to win Ohio by a very safe margin. I'm not in the prediction business, but I'll put a guesstimate in the comments. 

And making my point that polls really can't be trusted all that much, Clifford Thies reports that Nate Silver has gone apoplectic over the Gallup poll:

Nate Silvers, the New York Times poll guru, has gone apoplectic over the Gallup Poll. It - the gold standard of polls - is an outlier poll, he says. Suddenly, the Rasmussen Poll - that tool of the Republicans - is to be preferred. Oh, wait, not really, as it also is pointed toward a Romney win, although not as strongly. No, the new standard is this: polls that show Obama to still be ahead, they are the gold standard, no, wait, can't refer to the gold standard, I mean, the "consensus," and those that show Romney to be ahead are outlier polls.
I have a friend at work who remains flabbergasted that at this point in the election, and with the economy the way it is, why Romney has not widened the gap by now.  That this race remains close is beyond comprehension to him.  I have another friend who sees conspiracy in all the polls and all the media and believes that Romney HAS in fact pulled way ahead and that these latest polls showing a Romney trend simply reflect what can no longer be hidden.

Keep this in mind, too:

The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings project that Democrats will end up with 48 Senate seats, the Republicans 47, with five remaining Toss-Ups—Massachusetts,Montana,  Ohio,  Virginia  and Wisconsin. New polling in the Florida Senate race  shows incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson with a five-point advantage. Democratic Senator Maria Cantwellremains comfortably ahead in her reelection bid in Washington. 
If Romney wins the White House he will certainly need the Senate if he intends to repeal Obamacare.

And so it goes, back and forth...until election day.

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