Friday, July 29, 2011

Boehner's New Plan

It looks like it's going to be a long weekend with the debt ceiling debate.  And truthfully, it's enough to make your head spin.

As of today, Boehner has a new plan and apparently the change is that this one includes a balanced budget amendment.  This BBA must be sent to the states before the ceiling is raised a second time.  Spending cuts must be larger than the spending increase, but it doesn't specify when those spending cuts occur, as far as I can tell.

Andrew Stiles at NRO reports that this new Boehner version will likely pass:

The exact language of the balanced-budget amendment will be up to Congress to determine. Members will vote on the updated legislation sometime today and many expect it to pass.
Rush Limbaugh pointed out today that the Boehner bill and the Reid bill are virtually the same except for the time line and the BBA.

Of course, Harry Reid and Obama say the Boehner bill is DOA so it's all for naught.

Steve Womack (R-Ark.) says the new Boehner bill is worse:

Womack tells National Review Online that he believes the initial bill, without the BBA requirement, was a “better play” because it had a much better chance of getting through the Senate, or at least becoming the framework for a final deal. He says the new bill “weakens our position” and “gives much more power to the Senate” by essentially allowing them lead the way on a final compromise.

Conn Carroll at The Washington Examiner says the Boehner bill won't be DOA in the Senate:

In the few minutes it takes to read this post, at least five Democrats will have again told reporters that the Boehner bill is "dead on arrival" in the Senate. But if the Boehner bill is such a non-threat to the White House, then why are House Democrats so scared to let any of their moderates vote for it?
Remember, five Democrats crosssed party lines to vote for the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act. That bill, requiring a constituional amendment with a super-majority to raise taxes, was truly DOA in the Senate. But this time around, no House Democrats will vote for the Boehner plan. Why?

Carroll points out that the Senate won't take the Boehner bill as is, but it will be the starting point for what we eventually end up with.

Here is Kathryn Lopez's take on the way it will go:

So what does the new path look like? This tweaked Budget Control Act will pass the House. The Senate will strip out the BBA language. It will pass the Senate. When it goes back to the House, Boehner loses some of his caucus again, but Pelosi will have to get some of her members on board. If this is such a crisis moment, Democrats are the party in power. Boehner negotiated with his caucus and got an imperfect bill that the Democratic Senate could work with — with a statement of principles in including the BBA. Then the Democrats, who do run Washington, after all, will have to step up to the plate.

She's probably right. 

Meanwhile, Stacy McCain is keeping an eye on the markets.  It seems the key there is to keep Obama off the television:

Before President Obama’s speech, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 90 points. Now — as of 10:45 a.m. ET — it’s down 110 points.  Why? Because he used his speech for a partisan hit on the GOP as offering a bill that “does not solve the problem” and can’t pass Harry Reid’s Democrat-controlled Senate.
He really is a downer.  Even Peggy Noonan sees that.  Now.

He is a loser.

She's a little late to the realization, but that's okay.

As for Boehener's bill, it goes to the Rules committee this afternoon and a vote could come later.  Stay tuned for updates here.   

(Memeorandum has full coverage as well, as always.)


LL said...

Very well written analysis (as usual).

Anonymous said...

This seems to be a complicated mess for those of us trying to figure out what's going on by watching the TV news programs. Your blog helped me alot in better understanding where this is headed.Should be an interesting weekend.

Intergalactic said...

The main motivation behind the debt ceiling increase opposition crowd is the interest in their own political careers. Tea Party politics involves endorsing the ideas of your constituents even if those ideas would be detrimental to the "common good" of the nation as a whole.

I hate big government, irresponsible spending, and high taxation but the fact is that our nation is in this debt situation no matter how much we despise the system that got us here. But using this crisis as a political opportunity is disgusting.

I wouldn't call it terrorism and the Tea Party is obviously not the first group to manipulate a political crisis.