Tuesday, November 3, 2009
NY-23: Election Day
Read Anita's concerns at Hot Air's Greenroom. She says, "Multiple sources on the ground in New York’s 23rd Congressional district confirm that ACORN is expected to be actively protesting the election results in Clinton County, New York tomorrow. This move comes on the heels of a legal win for the Hoffman camp today as it was ruled that all poll watchers would have to be registered voters of NY 23."
During the ACU PAC conference call Sunday night these concerns were also expressed by Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan. He said, "We want a clean, legal election because if that's the case, we win."
Please, God, let it be so.
Clean. Fair. Over.
(More at Memeorandum)
Sunday, November 1, 2009
NY-23 Conference Call
After participating in the conference call tonight hosted by the American Conservative Union's PAC to discuss NY-23 it seems to me that the biggest concern for Doug Hoffman now might be getting a fair election. Hoffman's campaign feels the momentum of the past couple of days but this election is by no means in the bag.Rob Ryan, spokesman for the Hoffman campaign, said that what they need more than anything "is bodies." He expressed concern about "the amount of people coming in" for the Owens campaign, specifically ACORN and the WFP. The WFP is already under investigation in New York for forging absentee ballots and this is something that the Hoffman campaign wants to be sure doesn't happen in NY-23. As Ryan said tonight, "We want a clean, legal election because if that's the case, we win."
To that end, they need volunteers. Ryan asks that if you're in the area and able to help, get in touch with the Hoffman ca
mpaign and do what you can. Here is the list of campaign offices (in pdf). Stacy McCain described the 23rd district as "huge; it's the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River." It's a gerrymandered district and covers a large, oddly shaped territory, mostly suburban. Watertown is probably the largest city in the district with about 40,000 people.What Stacy McCain hears from voters in the district are concerns about out of control spending and the cost of Obamacare. He says "Hoffman is widely respected by those who know him" despite the fact that he's not an affable or charismatic kind of guy. He's not your typical Washington politician. He's honest and hard working and has genuine concern for the district and the country.
I asked Stacy what the expected turnout for this election is likely to be. As a special election in an off year, you would normally expect turnout to be low. In a sense, this may work to Hoffman's advantage because those that do get out to vote will be those hard-core people that follow the issues. Those moderate, indifferent voters may not turn out. The Democrats have been advertising very heavily in the district, however, and their on-the-ground canvassing is very strong.
This is why volunteers are needed. Even though the RNC and the NRCC are sending resources Hoffman's way, the election is only two days out. If you live anywhere near the area, or know someone who does, the Hoffman campaign needs you.
Matt Burns, former spokesman for Dede Scozzafava, now supporting Hoffman, says that the main thing at this point is to elect someone who will stand up to the aggressive agenda of Nancy Pelosi, and Doug Hoffman is that candidate.
Related:
Jimmie Bise was in on the call and his impressions are here.
Ed Morressey's thoughts are here.
More at Memeorandum.
(Cross posted at Not One Red Cent!)
NY-23: Is Dede Endorsing Hoffman or Owens?
Hotline quotes both the New York Post and the Watertown Daily Times:
First, in a Watertown Daily Times' editorial switching its endorsement from Scozzafava to atty Bill Owens (D), the Daily Times notes that Scozzafava "began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for" Owens after her withdrawal announcement 10/31.
And, according to the New York Post, Scozzafava's husband -- Central Labor Council pres. Ron McDougall -- wholeheartedly endorsed Owens late last p.m. McDougall: "As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers. Hoffman's opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District."
Stacy McCain is still on scene in upstate New York and also notes the Watertown Times story:The Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times -- which previously endorsed Scozzafava -- stirred the pot this morning with an editorial backing Democrat Bill Owens and claiming that this was also Scozzafava's agenda.
I don't think in the end that Dede's recommendation is going to be a game changer. The bigger picture here, to me, is her nomination in the first place. That the Republican establishment ever thought she was a viable candidate for that district is the real issue. She is not distinguishable from the Democrat in any significant way. Why did the RNC think this boat would float?
Stacy McCain phoned me from Watertown a couple of nights ago and,pointed me to this TCOT Report story by Michael Patrick Leahy about Dede's selection process:
Scozzafava was nominated on July 22 at a meeting of the eleven county chairmen. Prior to this meeting, a series of four regional meetings were held throughout the district, at which time nine candidates were given a chance to appear in front of a select group of Republican committeemen and State Party Officials. Many conservative Republicans in the 23rd Congressional District were insulted by the Speaker's blatant mischaracterization that Scozzafava was the "unanimous" choice of the four regional meetings that preceded the nominee selection meeting held on July 22. Contrary to the Speaker's assertions, Scozzafava received a majority of the support in only one of these four meetings.
She never had the local support the NRCC contended. Leahy asked Fulton County Republican County Chairman Susan McNeil if there was any support at all for Dede in Fulton County. McNeil's response? "In all of the calls I have received there is no support for Dede."
In fact, most of the support was for conservative Paul Maroun.
In other words, not unlike what they've done in the Florida Senate race between Rubio and Crist, the RNC inserted themselves into a local race because they thought they knew better than the locals what was good for them. In the Florida case, that's a primary race and the NRSC should have held off until Florida picked their own Republican candidate.
In the case of NY-23, the RNC should have listened to the locals. The fact that Dede and her big-labor husband are now coming out, however quietly, for the Democrat just shows that she is solidly a RINO and had no business representing the conservatives of that district.
The people of the district will speak on Tuesday and it's still not a "done deal" for Hoffman. He needs financial support and volunteers. But most of all, the RNC needs to listen to the conservative base. It's time to close ranks and come together as a party under the conservative principles that used to define us. No more RINOs!
(Cross posted at Not One Red Cent!)
(Photo credit: Hoffman Campaign Headquarters by Stacy McCain.)
Frank Rich's Night of the Living Dead
You'll never believe this, but for the first time ever I watched "The Night of the Living Dead" last night. I know, it's a classic, but I'd just never seen it in it's entirety.It seems that Frank Rich has seen it though, except in his mind it takes place in upstate New York. Rich has a column in the New York Times today describing the Republican party and Conservatives in the most frightening terms. The zombies shuffling across the field are of course "Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, William Kristol and Newt Gingrich." The rest of us are dressed in "tea-party drag." We have all devolved "into a wacky, paranoid cult that is as eager to eat its own as it is to destroy Obama."
Was Rich watching the same movie I was when he wrote his column? Probably not. That's just the way he sees things.
Never missing a chance to take a shot at Sarah Palin, Rich says "The movement’s undisputed leaders, Palin and Beck, neither of whom has what Palin once called the 'actual responsibilities' of public office, would gladly see the Republican Party die on the cross of right-wing ideological purity." Now we have crucifixion imagery here. Way to go Frank! But wait a minute; I know I'm just a zombie in tea-party drag, but doesn't being governor of a state qualify you as having had "actual responsibilities of public office?"
What Rich is really scared of is that Republicans will find their conservative base once again. He concludes Hoffman's rise indicates an all out press of third party candidates which, if so, would benefit the Democrats. He says the actions of todays "teabaggers" are reminiscent of "the early 1960s, when radical-right hysteria carried some of the same traits we’re seeing now: seething rage, fear of minorities, maniacal contempt for government, and a Freudian tendency to mimic the excesses of political foes."
Seriously? That's how he sees this? He criticizes our dissent and the ability of Hoffman to raise cash from national sources. I guess only Democrats can do that. The rest of us? We're just "eating our own."
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Dede Calls it Quits
I've spent the morning running scans on my desktop in an attempt to rid it of an intrusive trojan/virus. Then comes word that Dede quits NY-23. Oh the irony.Robert Stacy McCain is on scene and broke the news, at least, that's how I found out. This is exciting stuff! Who would have thought that a small special election in upstate New York would have turned into such a referendum on the GOP, RNC, NRCC and, well, Newt.
Professor Jacobson is calling it an all out referendum on Obama now. Liberals vs. conservatives.
The talk on Twitter is sort of cautious; some are hesitant to get too excited just yet. Part of that is because Scozzafava was such a liberal some of her voters may go to Hoffman. The last poll had it a dead heat with Hoffman and Owens with Dede a distant third.
Hot Air reports that Hoffman supporters are headed to Scozzafava's campaign to seek her endorsement. Heh. She's so far left, I'm not even sure that's a good idea.
Things are happening quickly now. Stay tuned for more updates!
(Cross posted at Not One Red Cent)
Friday, October 30, 2009
Joe Biden Heads to Upstate New York
UPDATED BELOW!How nervous must the Democrats be about NY-23 to send Joe Biden to campaign for Owens? And he's bringing country singer John Rich with him.
Via Memeorandum, Biden is heading to upstate New York to make an eleventh hour push for Bill Owens. This is basically a two man race now between Owens and conservative Doug Hoffman. Dede Scozzafava's campaign has collapsed faster than the Chicago Cubs season did this year. With the RNC now welcoming Hoffman to caucus with them once he wins, Scozzafava must be steaming.
Politico reports that the Biden rally will be Monday in Watertown:
The visit by Biden underlines how badly national Democrats want to snatch this seat, Republican-held since before the Civil War, from the GOP. But it also reflects Democrats' 11th-hour efforts to avoid a clean sweep Tuesday of the three mostly closely-watched races. With Republicans almost certainly winning the Virginia gubernatorial contest and the New Jersey governor's race very much up in the air, the upstate New York congressional race may represent the party's best chance for victory.
We can only hope Stacy McCain will stick around up there to cover Biden's visit; maybe some more shoe leather donations would help!
Allahpundit reminds us how "popular" Biden is lately.
Smells like desperation to me!
Update: Add one more reason for Scozzafava to get steamed: Rep. Issa, who supported her previously, is now backing away from her and is overnighting Doug Hoffman a $5,000 check!
(Cross-posted at Not One Red Cent!)
Thursday, October 29, 2009
NY-23: Doug Hoffman Surges in Latest Poll
Jumpin' jehosaphat! Have you seen the latest Daily Kos poll on NY-23? Here's the summary:Owens 33 (-2 vs. last poll, Oct. 22)
Hoffman 32 (+9)
Scozzafava 21 (-9)
Und 14
and the breakdown is here. That's quite a jump for Doug Hoffman, and I might note, quite a fall for Dede. The poll was conducted from October 26 to October 28 so it would reflect the Palin endorsement. Governor Rick Perry now joins the lineup of those who have endorsed Hoffman along with Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, Fred Thompson and Rick Santorum, among others.
Allahpundit notes the poll with the reminder that this isn't actually a Daily Kos poll - they just paid for it. The pollster, Research 2000 is reliable. In addition, he says "Remember too that the campaigns have been whispering for the past week that internal polls show a two-man race now with Scozzafava fading. Consider this confirmation."
The end is near: Hoffman, Scozzafava and Democrat Owens will debate tonight; election day is Tuesday. Stacy McCain is doing the road-trip-thing, on his way to Syracuse as we speak. I believe you'll be able to watch tonight's debate online.
It's not too late to send some cash Hoffman's way so he can keep the momentum! As Robert Stacy McCain says, it's HOFFMANIA!
(Cross-posted at Not One Red Cent!)
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
On Polls and Third Parties
I'm always so cautious about polls. My opinion of polls is that you can always find one that supports what you want to hear. So with that in mind, I'm excited, yet cautious, about the Club for Growth poll that shows a Hoffman surge in NY-23:A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army. The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%.
Club for Growth has endorsed Hoffman, but does that take any validity from their poll? Who knows. I'd like to say no, but were it in reverse, I'd probably discount the results; say if ACORN produced a poll that showed Scozzafava surging, I'd ignore it.
There's a lot of analysis out there over the past few days about the state of the GOP and the role of third parties. Glenn Beck did a spiel on that yesterday. He was on Fox & Friends this morning commenting on his interview with Hoffman; he noted how Hoffman isn't some polished, professional politician that's been on television forever. He comes across as a regular Joe. Beck says you're going to see more and more people like Hoffman, people who have never run before but who are tired of what they're seeing in Washington and who want to get back to the principles of our country. People are not necessarily going to vote for the letter-designation after the name anymore.
Is this a good thing? Or is it, as Newt says, going to hurt the party in the long run? Here's the deal. This is where I am with it. The party be damned. I've never actually associated myself with "party" and in fact was a registered Democrat up until about eight months ago even though I haven't voted for a Democrat in years. It has always depended on the candidate for me, and how closely they mirror my own values. Most of the time it's a Republican. But if it's a Conservative or a Libertarian or even a Democrat (not likely!), that's where I'm voting.
If that makes the Republican tent too small, then so be it. If it's the end of the Republican party, what have we lost? As it is right now there isn't much difference between that and the Democrats.
I think in Hoffman, people are beginning to see that one individual CAN make a difference. He's providing hope to a lot of people, and not that phony, slick, glamorized "hope" we were encouraged to buy into last year. Real hope. Real grassroots hope.
Run, Doug, Run! Good luck!
Monday, October 26, 2009
Hoffmania!
LOTS of articles about NY-23 this morning! As Stacy McCain says, it's "Hoffmania!"American Thinker has a piece by Bruce Walker in which he says:
And then we have American Specator and Stacy McCain's piece in which he gives us background on Hoffman's humble beginnings:
Given his hardscrabble upbringing, Hoffman's sympathies are clearly with the conservative grassroots. He was able to get a college education only because his excellent academic record in high school inspired local businessmen to establish a scholarship fund to assist him. Joining the National Guard also helped, and he served a total of six years in Guard and Army Reserves before finishing his enlistment as a staff sergeant. Shortly thereafter, already married with two young children, Hoffman completed his MBA at the University of Connecticut and returned home. At age 27, he became controller -- that is to say, the chief accountant -- for the 1980 Lake Placid Olympic Organizing Committee, responsible for a multimillion dollar budget.
Spectator's Washington Prowler also comments on the NY-23 race and Dede Scozzafava's collapsing campaign:Scozzafava's campaign hasn't had a good week, taking hits almost daily from conservative grassroots organizations and websites and in the media. Last week, just about every major conservative political website and organization called on Scozzafava to step aside after it was revealed that her husband called the cops on a Weekly Standard reporter who was politely asking the candidate tough questions about her support for card check legislation. Scozzafava's husband also approached local Democrat party leaders earlier this year about the possibility of her running on the Democrat party line should the Republican nomination not take shape.
And, of course, The Washington Post weighs in on Palin's endorsement of Hoffman:
Sarah Palin's decision late last week to endorse the Conservative Party candidate over the Republican nominee in a special U.S. House election in Upstate New York is the latest example that the former Alaska governor's allegiance is to her conservative principles rather than the party's edicts.
Hoffman is making real gains; it's not too late to send some cash so he can continue the momentum!
Sunday, October 25, 2009
NY-23: Hoffman Pens an OpEd
Taxes, the deficit, red tape and regulation are breaking the back of the nation, mortgaging the future of our children and grandchildren.
Americans have had enough and are vocalizing their anger in town hall meetings and on the streets of Washington. They are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore!
That’s why I am running. I am one of them!
Freedom is what Americans want. Economic freedom to reap the rewards of the free enterprise system, personal freedom from the intrusion of big government in our lives, freedom from the nanny state that is being forced upon us.
I’m a lifelong Republican running as the nominee of the New York State Conservative Party. I didn’t leave the Republican Party, the party left me. The GOP bosses in New York and Washington felt the candidate needed to be as liberal as possible. They picked a professional politician, with a voting record more liberal than 46 Democrats in the New York state legislature. They threw principles out the window.From there he goes on to point out Scozzafava's liberal positions and record.
You may wonder why you should be interested in a race in New York when you don't live anywhere near there, but this race is a bellwether for the 2010 races, in my mind. Are we going to let the national Republican leadership continue to put candidates like Scozzafava and Charlie Crist out there and tell us that's how to take back America?
There is no difference between Crist, Scozzafava and any other liberal politician already in Congress except for the party designation after their name.
Hoffman is a true conservative candidate, like Marco Rubio, and is the kind of candidate we need to support. Send him $5, $10, $25, whatever you can, to help him take back America.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Friday's Quick Reads
In a rush this morning, but here are a couple of things that caught my eye today:First the Krauthammer article this morning regarding the White House war with Fox News. And have you noticed the shift on Fox this week, ever since Axelrod and Rahm came out last weekend saying Fox isn't a news channel? I've seen a new ad running that shows Fox reporters in war zones, hurricanes, natural disasters, protests, and at political conventions reporting hard hitting news stories. The language in the ad is all about Fox NEWS, with the emphasis on NEWS. When Shepard Smith would break for commercial last night and do his lead out, he'd say "...on Fox NEWS channel" or "....coming up on Fox, the place for NEWS." Shepard Smith is the master of manipulation of tone, and the intent was clear - "we're a news channel!"
The Fox war sort of ties in with what Peggy Noonan is writing about today as well. Her main point is that it's time for Obama to own this presidency and quit blaming Bush for everything. It's undignified and it's not presidential. In the same vein, this war with Fox is also not presidential. Trying to shut Fox out of the pool access to the pay czar yesterday - not presidential. Noonan attributes Obama's tanking poll numbers to his failure to own this presidency: "At some point, you own your presidency. At some point it's your rubble. At some point the American people tell you it's yours. The polls now, with the presidential approval numbers going down and the disapproval numbers going up: That's the American people telling him."
I think that's part of it, but most of it is a difference in policy; Americans aren't getting what they thought they voted for.
And speaking of presidential, I don't want to hear anybody criticize the way George W. Bush speaks EVER again when now what I have to listen to is this:
Democrats, he said to the Democratic audience, are "an opinionated bunch." They always have a lot of thoughts and views. Republicans, on the other hand—"the other side"—aren't really big on independent thinking. "They just kinda sometimes do what they're told. Democrats, ya'll thinkin' for yourselves."
As Noonan says, I hate it when he tries to get all folksy, and down home. It's embarrassing.
One other item to note today is the Palin endorsement of Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 race. That news broke all over the blogosphere last night and now makes the race a national news story; now everyone is paying attention to it. Did you see that Hoffman's campaign war chest doubled in just a week?! Spectacular! And many are calling for Scozzafava to pull out of the race after her brouhaha with the police and John McCormack of the Weekly Standard earlier in the week.
All this, and just think - the Friday News Dump is still to come.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Sarah Palin for Doug Hoffman!
Via Facebook (emphasis mine):
The people of the 23rd Congressional District of New York are ready to shake things up, and Doug Hoffman is coming on strong as Election Day approaches! He needs our help now.
The votes of every member of Congress affect every American, so it's important for all of us to pay attention to this important Congressional campaign in upstate New York. I am very pleased to announce my support for Doug Hoffman in his fight to be the next Representative from New York's 23rd Congressional district. It's my honor to endorse Doug and to do what I can to help him win, including having my political action committee, SarahPAC, donate to his campaign the maximum contribution allowed by law.
Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a "time for choosing."
The federal government borrows, spends, and prints too much money, while our national debt hits a record high. Government is growing while the private sector is shrinking, and unemployment is on the rise. Doug Hoffman is committed to ending the reckless spending in Washington, D.C. and the massive increase in the size and scope of the federal government. He is also fully committed to supporting our men and women in uniform as they seek to honorably complete their missions overseas.
And best of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine.
Doug Hoffman stands for the principles that all Republicans should share: smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty.
Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of "blurring the lines" between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party's ticket.
Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual.
You can help Doug by visiting his official website below and joining me in supporting his campaign:
http://www.doughoffmanforc
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Meltdown in NY-23
I'm with Allahpundit - I almost feel sorry for her at this point. Her campaign is melting faster than a banana fudgsicle in August.
Jim Geraghty even suggests it's time for the NRCC to ask for their money back:
It's not just the inanity of Dede Scozzafava's campaign calling the cops on a reporter; it's doubling down and calling McCormack a liar. With audiotape now exposing the Scozzafava campaign as the liar in their account of the candidate's interaction with John McCormack, it's a different ballgame. I'm actually finding myself driven to a position beyond the editors.
It's time for the NRCC and RNC to cut their ties, and more. It's embarrassing enough when a candidate won't answer reasonable questions from reasonable press and her campaign attempts to smear them in order to cover up their mess. Forwarding McCormack's e-mails to Talking Points Memo just shows how upside-down the Scozzafava campaign is.
The time has come for the RNC and NRCC to ask for their money back.Well, that's not going to happen, but this might be a good time to send Hoffman some cash so he can capitalize on this meltdown and make some gains.
Mark Steyn Opines on the NY-23 Race
Mark Steyn offers some observations of the NY-23 race:Newt really needs to re-think his support for Dede Scozzafava. This isn't RINO but DIABOLO - Democrat In All But Official Label Only. It's not one of those "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" bi-swinger deals - not when you're pro-"stimulus", pro-cash-for-clunkers. And the reductive argument that her sole redeeming value - a willingness to vote for John Boehner as Speaker - is reason enough to support her is silly in a special election. If he's ever Speaker, Boehner won't be till January 2011, and it's 12 months premature for Newt to be telling voters they need to suck it up and accept that a handful of Jim-Jeffords-in-embryo-form are necessary for the Republican tide.
He makes an interesting point. It does seem that Scozzafava's "sole redeeming value" is her willingness to vote for John Boehner as speaker, but there is so much more at stake than that. And as Steyn points out, that wouldn't even occur until 2011 at best. And what guarantee does anyone have that she would still vote for Boehner when the time came? The rumor mill has offered the possibility that she might change parties. Arlen Specter redux.
Steyn goes on to raise a competence issue with Scozzafava as well:
At this stage in the nation's affairs, Washington doesn't need another incoherent buffoon insulated by a phalanx of thin-skinned twerps already guarding her like a 30-year incumbent for whom routine questions are an outrageous form of lèse-majesté.
After the weird incident with John McCormack this week, Michelle Malkin points out that we can also add "liar" to the list of Scozzafava's credentials.
Hoffman can win this race. But, as Steyn points out, if he doesn't then a large part of the blame falls to the crap weasels at the NRCC who endorsed Scozzafava and decided she was the Republican that could win. In a traditionally conservative and Republican district, why in the world would they think such a thing?
Robert Stacy McCain profiles the NY-23 race here, and quotes Hoffman's media coordinator Rob Ryan's response to the Scozzafava/McCormack incident as saying "The only thing the police need to investigate in this race is if Dede Scozzafava is impersonating a Republican."
Ryan also says that this race will be a real bellwether for the Republican party, something Steyn notes as well. How big a tent does the Republican party want to pitch? According to Steyn, if Hoffman loses and the seat falls to a Democrat, largely due to the NRCC's misguided endorsement, "it will be a cautionary tale for party leaders who, as in NY-23, make choices that confirm everything a disgruntled base thinks of them. "
More on this race can be found at Memeorandum.
(Cross posted at Not One Red Cent!)