Live-Blogging Election Night 2012

I'll be live-blogging the results tonight; it'll be more of an open-thread sort of affair.

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I've purposely avoided projections, predictions, and much poll analysis.  There's enough of that to go around and certainly by many more expert than this little blogger.

Allahpundit has a great post on electoral math you should read before the night gets started.  The bottom line:

If all of the above is too complicated, here’s a much simpler way to understand Romney’s task. Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory. If he doesn’t, then he’d have to win every other battleground state — Nevada included — or else.

So.  Catch your breath and check back in a bit.

Update:  Oh, look:  Via Professor Jacobson, via PJ Tatler via Politico, a handy poll closing map!

Update 2:  Drudge is trolling.  Do not be alarmed.

I'm not going to pay attention to exit polls or projections.  I'm not going to get freaked out by every rumor.  I'm going to wait for solid results.  

Remain calm.

6:10 (CST):  Indiana flips for Romney, it seems.  Fox is calling to for Romney.  Virginia is still to close.  Kentucky is also in the Romney column.   No real surprises yet.  Mr. SIGIS and I both are on pins and needles.

6:35:  I frankly do not understand why this election is so close.  How in the world...

At any rate, right now FOX has the electoral count at 24 to 3 for Romney.  Romney has picked up West Virginia.  Still waiting on Virginia and Ohio - the big ones.

6:40:  Romney just picked up South Carolina.  Electoral count is now 33 to 3.

6:45:  Twitchy is reporting threats of looting if Obama loses.  Stay calm, America.

Reports on Twitter are that lines in Florida are still extremely long.  It's going to be a long night.

6:50:  I'm hearing on Twitter that many in Virginia are still in line and that they are delaying calling the state until the top of the hour for that reason.

6:55:  Romney picks up Georgia and 16 electoral votes bringing the count to 49  - 3.

I'm watching Fox who reports that 51% of those polled trust Obama over Romney on handling an international crisis.  WTH?  Because he did such a good job with Libya?  #fourdeadAmericans.

7:00:  I'm getting tired of the "too close to call" phrase.  I'm stressing out on Florida right now which I was pretty sure would go to Romney but is still very close.

Fox is however, calling Illinois, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, District of Columbia, Maine, and Connecticut for Obama.

Romney gets Alabama, Oklahoma, and Mississippi.

The count is now Romney 71 and Obama 79.

The map right now:

Meanwhile, Bill O'Reilly is spreading doom and gloom saying Bomber-Jacket-Obama won points for loping around with Chris Christie on Hurricane Sandy relief.  He would have us believe that the American public is so gullible they forgot all about Libya and four dead Americans because Obama made pretty pictures in the media acting concerned in New Jersey.

Are you serious?

For the record, I disagree with everything O'Reilly just said.  Get the hook.

7:10:   Romney gets Tennessee - not a shock.

Virginia is still on hold because they still have long lines in both Democrat and Republican areas.  Rove thinks this is a good sign for Romney based on the counties he's looking at.

I'm still nervous about Florida.  Very close.  And it looks like Connie Mack lost there.  Not a good sign.

7:25:   For comparison's sake, here is the 2008 electoral map:

Still waiting on those all important swing states right now.

Fox is calling Arkansas for Romney (+6 votes).  Current electoral count is now Romney 88, Obama 79.  No surprises yet.  Nerves on edge.

7:35:   Ted Cruz wins Texas!  That's good news.

Democrats win the CT Senate seat.

7:45:   PA Senate goes to Bob Casey (D) over Tom Smith (R).  No Senate takeover for Republicans it seems.  The path to repeal ObamaCare just got a lot more difficult.

Okay, latest calls:

Obama gets Michigan (+16), and New York.

Romney gets Texas (+38), Louisiana, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska (at least four of the five electoral votes, that is).

The map now:

Still waiting on big swing states.

8:05:   It seems that Elizabeth Warren will win in Mass.  That's just astounding.

Still long lines in VA.

I'm watching the FL returns on the Secretary of State page and it's literally back and forth. 

They're still counting.

8:15:  Damn.  Obama gets Pennsylvania.   How in the world could a coal state vote for a President with such a profound war on coal?

Then there is THIS:

8:25:  Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama.  We lost Paul Ryan's own state.

I'm drinking now.

Liz Cheney:  "It feels like deja vu in so many ways."  No kidding.  She's still holding out hope for Romney.

The electoral map is currently tied at 153.

And the first take-back of the night:  Elizabeth Warren may not have won her race just yet.

8:40:   Mourdock loses in the Indiana Senate race.

We're screwed.

Florida is still literally flipping back and forth.  It should not be this close.

It's down to Ohio.  And Florida.  Rove sees Florida in Obama's corner right now by 22,000 votes (yet Gary Johnson has 38,000 votes right now.)  Rove still sees Florida going Romney's way but very, very close.

Reports are that Romney is leading in Virginia.  #holdingmybreath

8:50:   I'm afraid that everyone in Florida who voted for Gary Johnson, knowing he couldn't win, gave this election to Obama.  It's come to this.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, Romney is still looking good, and he is looking steady in Ohio.

And yes, Elizabeth Warren wins the Mass. Senate race after all.  Bah.

8:55:   Obama wins New Hampshire.  Plus four.

"Live free or die."  The irony is not lost on me.

The next batch of state closings are coming up which I am now anticipating with dread.

9:00:  Here we go.

Obama is leading Iowa but too soon to call.  He's also leading Nevada, but still too soon.

Romney wins Utah.  Shocker.  He also wins Montana.  Texas.

Brit Hume:  We are a center-right country.  Of the moderates, a lot of them "are actually liberals."

Looking at the Sec. of State page, Florida is looking like Obama.

Fox calls Missouri Senate for Claire McCaskill - 55% to 39%.  Akin blew that one.

Mike Pence wins as Indiana governor.

Palin is on Fox:  "This is a catastrophic setback for our economy," and cites sequestration, Supreme Court justices that will be appointed, and the debt.

9:15:   Obama gets New Mexico (+5).  Electoral count is tied at 163.  Rove is still positive for Ohio.  Megyn Kelly asked Rove if he's "feeling pessimistic" and Rove spews numbers and statistics, refusing to admit the horror of the electoral map.

Romney has to win Virginia, Florida, and one other state, says Rove, IF Romney wins Ohio.  Meanwhile, Florida voters for Johnson have given America over to Obama.

9:30:  Florida still to close to call.  Ohio leaning Obama.  Virginia leaning Romney.

Peggy Noonan:  "There is a subdued feeling to this if you are a Republican or a Conservative this evening."  Understatement of the night.  "Subdued" isn't exactly what I'm feeling.

After all this money and all this time we end up right where we were with no change at all.

Oh lord and now Fox puts Gibbs on there?  Good lord.

All this and Robert Gibbs, too?  I don't think I can stand it.

9:40:   Colorado is too close to call.  Of course it is.

Romney wins Arizona.

Many on Twitter are questioning the early Wisconsin call.  Romney is still leading there.  Will that one come back?

9:50:   Stacy McCain has updated his headline:

His late update:

UPDATE 10:05 p.m. ET: You’ll excuse my failure to report numbers from Ohio, but if Romney can’t win Florida, Ohio is moot and the numbers aren’t looking too encouraging in Florida right now.
UPDATE 10:25 p.m. ET: Obama wins Wisconisn.

Doomed.

We are waiting on Virginia and Florida.  The panhandle is still not in and it usually goes Republican.

The map now:

They are using the "R" word for Florida.  They have an automatic recount rule there if the vote is within a certain range.

9:50:  Minnesota goes to Obama.  Plus 10.

9:55:  And it gets better.  Susan Estrich is on.  They haven't pulled her out since the last election.  Any minute now they'll make us listen to Obama.  I'm pulling the plug then.

Looks like Romney is going to get North Carolina but they haven't called it yet.    Florida is still looking like Obama.  90% of the votes are in and he leads by 36,000.

Fox now calling North Carolina for Romney (+15).  Fox calls Idaho for Romney, too.  Obama gets the state of Washington and Hawaii.  And BREAKING NEWS:  California to Obama.

The electoral count is now 244 to 193 in Obama's favor.

Doom.

10:00:   Fox calls Missouri for Romney.  Count is now 244 to 203.

Protein Wisdom:

The mainstream press once again bought Obama the election. Which will buy him 4 years of an imperial presidency with nothing to stop him.
End of country.
Time to maybe start a new one, I think.  Because I’ll be goddamned if my family is going to work to pay for other people’s shit; and I most certainly won’t live in a post-Constitutional police state — at least, not without putting up whatever resistance I can.

As Bride of Rove said in the comments, "Who is John Galt?"

10:10:   On a related note, from Instapundit:

READER ZACH WHITE EMAILS: “If Obama is reelected, good hardworking people should give up and go Galt. The tipping point is the 2012 election. Will the makers finally succumb to the takers? It’s pointless to think that if America reelects the most unqualified disastrous president in recent memory, we should stand our ground and continue fighting. it’s a signal that marxist free-lunchism and free birth control for everyone trump economic well-being and prosperity in the minds of the masses. Give up. Go Galt. Protect what few assets you have left, and start to hunker down for the coming storm. 

Read the rest.

10:15:  Fox calls Ohio for Obama.

And we are done.

Florida is now moot.  As is Virginia. 

And so we are done and America as we know it is done.  Make no mistake about that.  Those of us that work and have jobs will now be working to support 50% of the country who does not work and will never be compelled to work.  Free phones, food stamps, and single pay health care will now be the order of the day.  Generational debt, economic stagnation, and a total lapse in national security.

Iran and al Qaeda must certainly be celebrating tonight.

I'm truly scared for my country, my family, and the future. 

This blog is going dark for a while. 

It is over.

Election Day 2012: (UPDATED)

If you have interesting pictures from your voting location or from wherever you are in the country that reflect today's election, send them to me.  (Email is on the contact page).  We'll post pictures of election 2012 here.

Louisiana isn't exactly a battleground state but everyone needs to go vote!

In Louisiana we have several amendments on our ballot, too.  One of them deals specifically with your Second Amendment rights.

Go vote.

And check back for updates.

Update 11:40:  The line at my voting place was an hour long!  I've been voting there for probably 25 years and it has NEVER been that long.

This is the line - it went forward on the left wall then looped back down the right wall.  Awesome!

The line stretched far outside the door:

So I decided to drive around and check other polling stations.  This one in south Shreveport looked crowded too:

Again, I've never seen lines like this.

There is a voting location down the street from me and the parking lot was filled and cars lined the street.  The line wasn't out the door though.

I saw this fella as I was driving home:

And at the Brass Monkey:

How are things were you are?

Update 1:10:  Instapundit has a roundup of turnout and anecdotal reports from around the country.

Via Fox, this is outrageous!

Update 3:50:  William Teach at The Pirate's Cove has an extensive list of bloggers doing election coverage today if you need some reading material before election results start coming in.

The Other McCain has Election Day Updates, too.

"A Republic, if You Can Keep It."

A powerful scene from the HBO series "John Adams" as a reminder of what our forefathers did for us; it's all on the line tomorrow:




Remember:  "A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people."

The Coming EPA War on American Energy

It is the calm before the storm election. 

Maybe "calm" isn't the right word.  Have you seen the photos of the Romney rallies?  This one is from Pennsylvania today:

It looks rather like folks in Pennsylvania might have heard about Obama's new EPA agenda.

Certainly everyone in coal country should pay attention to this unleashed EPA.  The agenda is just chilling and is certain to doom the American economy for good. 

From Forbes:

Titled “A Look Ahead to EPA Regulations for 2013: Numerous Obama EPA Rules Placed on Hold Until After the Election Spell Doom For Jobs and Economic Growth”, it lists and describes new rules concocted over the past year ranging from additional restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, tougher water guidelines and tightening of the ozone standard. Taken together, they will further drive up pump prices, impose construction bans on local communities, and cripple oil, natural gas and coal production.

In sum, Larry Bell outlines what we can expect:

Greenhouse gas regulations will be so regulated as to basically eliminate coal.  The emissions standards will apply to even the smallest church, school, and farm.  "The cow tax" will apply to some 37,000 farms and affect 90% of the livestock population in the United States.

(Think that'll drive up your food and energy prices much?)

There's more:

The EPA is just one of some fourteen bureaucracies working to regulate and eliminate hydraulic fracking.  The EPA will dramatically expand the Clean Water Act and increase regulatory burdens on the states.  There will also be an expansion of regulations on storm-water systems which will require expensive retrofitting on storm water sewers and severely increase the cost of future development.  New gasoline regulations will limit the amount of sulfur in gasoline which Bell says will add at least nine cents per gallon to your gas bill.

Add to this list the Boiler MACT:

EPA’s Boiler MACT (Maximum Achievable Control Technology) standards are so strict that not even the best-performing sources can meet them, so many companies will have no choice but to shut their doors and ship manufacturing jobs overseas. The rule has been projected to reduce U.S. GDP by as much as 1.2 billion dollars and destroy nearly 800,000 jobs.

Can't wait to see what THAT does to the unemployment numbers.

There's also a "Cement MACT" which could close 18 plants and cost 80,000 jobs.

Read Bell's article because there are many more regulations there including the infamous Farm Dust regulations and cooling tower regulations.

If just half of these kick in we are still in a world of trouble.

Jazz Shaw at Hot Air:

 Coal miners and coal powered plants already have a big problem, as we have pointed out repeatedly. But it looks like those problems may grow by several orders of magnitude in the coming months if the current White House occupant remains in office. The President has already been seen to bristle at criticism from his own Left flank over how he hasn’t done enough for the environmentalists who can’t understand why the oil companies are still in business four years later. Unrestrained by the need to win another election – having a lot more “flexibility,” as you might hear from Vladimir – these folks can really run amok.

Even the most far left liberal has to see that these regulations will be the death of American business and energy development.  We must have a strong petroleum industry and this will never happen under these expensive and burdensome regulations.  You can't fill your gas tank with wind, and you can't charge your electric car without electricity (which relies, of course, on coal).  Our power grid is already strained and in trouble. 

We can't afford another term of Obama unleashed.

(H/T:  Hot Air)

A Shameful Mess

It seems as if everyone is talking about Benghazi.

Yesterday afternoon I was sitting at the kitchen table writing checks and paying bills when my brother breezed through the front door ranting and raving about Obama's seeming dereliction of duty in Benghazi.  He's not one to usually pay attention to such things.

The Benghazi story doesn't feel like Fast and Furious did; I kept thinking Fast and Furious was going to get more traction than it did.  I mean, a murdered border agent, our government walking guns into Mexico, hundreds of dead Mexicans, drug lords, the who mess.  Well, there was a little investigation, a deeply researched book, a fair amount of outrage, but it never caught on with the general public or the "low information voter" like it seems Benghazi has.

One of the most succinct summations of this mess came from Mark Steyn's weekend column:

We also learned that, in those first moments of the attack, a request for military back-up was made by U.S. staff on the ground but was denied by Washington. It had planes and special forces less than 500 miles away in southern Italy — or about the same distance as Washington to Boston. They could have been there in less than two hours. Yet the commander-in-chief declined to give the order. So Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods fought all night against overwhelming odds, and died on a rooftop in a benighted jihadist hellhole while Obama retired early to rest up before his big Vegas campaign stop. “Within minutes of the first bullet being fired the White House knew these heroes would be slaughtered if immediate air support was denied,” said Ty Woods’s father, Charles. “In less than an hour, the perimeters could have been secured and American lives could have been saved. After seven hours fighting numerically superior forces, my son’s life was sacrificed because of the White House’s decision.”

The pain of this father is unbearable.  His son signed up to serve his country, not to be abandoned by it.

Smitty, over at The Other McCain, makes a valid point, too:

This notion of “never leaving a buddy” is pounded into every military head at every rank. Should you hold the privilege of commanding a unit, I perceive it counts double: you neither want to see a buddy left dangling in the breeze, and you really don’t want the anguish of explaining to the world why there was a death within you command.
Which brings us to our current Commander-in-Chief, #OccupyResoluteDesk. I don’t believe the principle of “never leaving a buddy” eluded George W. Bush, say whatever else you will of his policies. In contrast, you have the Obama White House needing to dispute a storythat it sends form letters to families of the fallen. Wow.

This is clearly a concept Obama can't relate to; he's more accustomed to throwing people under the bus.

Then there are those who believe that the whole Benghazi fiasco was a conspiracy theory: that Obama planned for Stevens et al, to be taken hostage whereby he would negotiate some terrific hostage deal (right about the time of the foreign policy debate), the hostages would be freed, and he would waltz into re-election in November.  That might explain the lowered security, but is there enough evidence to support this theory?  I don't know.

Senator John McCain says that it's either incompetence or a cover-up, both unacceptable:

"This is either a massive cover-up or an incompetence that is not acceptable service to the American people," he said on CBS's "Face the Nation." 

McCain said that information that has surfaced since the attacks, which claimed the lives of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens, indicates the narrative provided by the White House in the days following was "patently false."

Either way, whatever it is, the responsibility of four dead Americans is Obama's.  The administration clearly does not want this uncovered before the election which is also an indication of culpability.

And what of Hillary Clinton's role?  Did she, in fact, try to get extra security for Stevens and his team?

Even so.  The buck stops with Obama.

It is a shameful mess.  And one that Obama will eventually have to answer for.



(See Doug Ross for some unraveling of this mess.)

Report from the 2012 Freedom Rally in Bossier City

The takeaway message from tonight's Freedom Rally at the Bossier Civic Center was all about restoring freedom and prosperity in America.

The event kicked off about 5:30 inside the Bossier Civic Center and the crowd quickly filled two huge meeting rooms.  As host Royal Alexander began his opening remarks, event staff was busy bringing in more chairs to accommodate the crowd which was spilling out into the hallway.

Mr. Alexander quoted Thomas Jefferson in his opening remarks, reminding us all that "A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything that you have."

I was sitting next to Sharon McCullar who is a veteran, a small business owner, and a mother of two Marines; she was one of tonight's speakers.  She estimated the average age of the crowd at about 60, but I think it dropped a bit lower as people filtered in from work.  Steve estimated the crowd to be about 300 but I had it a little higher.  The enthusiasm was infectious.

One of the first speakers was U.S. Senator David Vitter who spoke about the need for a pro-growth tax rate in America to encourage business development.  He stressed the need for Republicans to take back not just the White House but also the Senate so that we can put in targeted health care reform and repeal ObamaCare.  This was met with thunderous applause.

Addressing national security and military budget cuts, Senator Vitter called for an end to "the apology tours" and quoted Reagan who said, "Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because America was too strong."  Senator Vitter says that "peace through strength" is the only way.

Another popular theme, especially here in oil rich, and Haynesville Shale country, Louisiana was Vitter's derision of "speculative green energy companies," many of which go down the tubes; we need to develop our energy resources here at home.

Senator Vitter closed his remarks by stressing that this election is "razor thin."  He said, "I DO believe the polls," rather than the conspiracy theorists who suggest that the polls are misrepresenting the actual numbers.  "Every vote counts," he said, reminding everyone of Florida.

Sharon McCullar has been a popular speaker at these events and she was warmly received.  She spoke of the socialist, entitlement mindset of this administration and encouraged everyone to engage their children in this debate because it is, after all, their future.  McCullar said we are "on the verge of a nuclear holocaust between Israel and Iran...our world in possession of 20,000 nuclear weapons!  We hope and pray humanity will have the restraint not to detonate."

She spoke of the huge debt, the Arab Spring, the Muslim Brotherhood, and of course, Benghazi.  McCullar says "these days, we are living in?  These are the days God ordered for us," because "he knew we would be willing to stand with courage."

She said that God "is not neutral in the affairs of humankind."

McCullar's remarks were filled with humor and optimism as she reached out to everyone there and of every religious persuasion, to believe and to pray for the future of our country.

Here's a segment of her speech on Benghazi and Obama's national security policy which she says, "he's gonna get us all killed!"  And, I apologize for the angle.  Sharon isn't very tall so mostly what you see is the podium.  It's the words, really, that you need to hear.  And the thumbnail is sideways but it doesn't play sideways.  Anyway, just watch it.



One of the highlights of the night was Karen Watson, author of Being Black and Republican in the Age of Obama which you can order here. What a spitfire she is!



When she finished speaking there was a dash to the back of the room to pick up her booklet.  (I got one.)

Royal Alexander said, "She tells it like it is!"  and he's right.

She said, "Do not assume when you see a black person that they are a Democrat because they are not.  Do not assume when you see a Hispanic that they are Democrat.  They are not.  Do not assume when you see a woman that she is pro-abortion because she is not."  I mean, they may be all that, but it was a gentle reminder that maybe the opposition is larger than we know.

In addition to the rousing speakers, there was also great musical entertainment.  Johnny Rowland entertained the crowd between speakers and at one point did a take-off on "Midnight Special" which got these two patriots up on their feet.  It's a blurry picture because they were dancing up a storm in the aisle:

 They were having a great time!

The evening closed with "God Bless America" and a promise of a brighter future for America.

Now is the time.

Monitoring Debate Three

I'm not live-blogging but I'm watching and will weigh in.  We just returned from a retirement party for a good friend and I'm being observed tomorrow ...  so ... I'm not live blogging.

In this first segment, the moderator is letting Obama run the show and Romney is lucky to get a word in.  And Obama is misrepresenting a lot of things.  I'll have to get the transcript because I'm late getting in on this one.

I did like Romney's line:  "Attacking me is not an agenda."  Good one.

Update 1:  Hmph.  I'm interested in the time clock on this one so far.  So far this seems like The Obama Show.  Is Romney here?

America's role in the world?  Romney  - American must be strong, America must lead.  To do that you must improve the economy.  We have to strengthen our military long-term.

Tehran!  The silence of the president was a "big mistake" he says.

Obama says America is stronger now than when he came into office, but this is not true.  The low information voter will believe this.

Obama is trying to make the case that our relationship with Israel is stronger than ever but it's not working.  He says we've cut our oil imports because we're drilling so much more at home but this, too, is a lie.

Falling back on this tired and unproven rhetoric shows Obama's weakness.
That said, now Obama blaming Bush.  #Fail.

Romney pounces by lining out his plan to make America energy independent.

We can get down into the weeds but right now, Romney is very much in command of the facts and winning.

Update 2:  Obama is interrupting a lot.  Romney seems in command of the facts and not at all flustered by Obama's blustering.  

Bob Schieffer challenges Romeny:  "Where are you going to get the money," to run your agenda?

Romney:  Well, Obamacare is a good start!  Hell, yeah.  And he plugs the Tenth Amendment.  States do a much better job with this, he says.

Rick Perry is pleased.

WTF?  Obama says we "need to be thinking about space."  Didn't he cut that?

Update 3:  It seems to me that Schieffer is letting Obama run the time and the tone of this debate.  "We have these things called 'aircraft carriers,'" Obama says to Romney.  Very condescending.

Obama vows that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon.  He says he supports Israel in a conflict with Iran.

Romeny:  "We will stand with Israel."   On Iran:  a nuclear capable Iran is not acceptable. Romney vows that a military option is "a last resort" only after every other option has been exhausted.

Where are the questions on Libya?

Update 4:  WTH?  Obama says he hasn't "apologized" to other nations? Is he not aware of YouTube?

Update 5:  Romney scores on the issue of Obama's apology tour.  You skipped Israel, Romney notes, and they noticed.  Romney hit a nerve it seems.  Obama's reaction is thin skinned.

Schieffer lobs a hypothetical question at Romney who declines to play the game. He prefers to stick to the real issues.  #Score.

Still, where are the Libya quesstions?

Update 6:  As much as Obama blathers about "keeping America safe," I wonder what the family of Chris Stevens has to say about that.

Latest timekeeper has Obama up four minutes on speak time.  Shocker.

The twitter feed reports that the general public is bored with this debate and foreign policy.   Can this be true?

I'm wondering when Obama says we need "to do nation building at home," do any of these "bored" people wonder how he is going to pay for it?  Why Obama's economic policies are absolutely crippling "nation building at home"?

Ah.  Bob Schieffer just noticed that Romney is also in attendance at this debate with a question about "divorcing Pakistan."

Smh.

Update 7: Romney supports drone strikes "entirely."

Libya questions, anyone?

Update 8:  Oh please, baby!  Obama says Al Qaeda is weaker and "does not have the same capacity" to attack America that they used to.  I, respectfully, disagree.

Ask, well,  almost anyone.

Obama is rambling about cheap Chinese tires and saving jobs.  Is anyone talking about Libya yet?

DID I MISS IT?

Update 9:  Hmm.  The look on Obama's face as Romney calls China a "currency manipulator" is almost as if he's impressed; a student in class.  It's like he's never thought of this before.

Romney is in command of this question.

Romney's business acumen is showing here.  Obama's lack thereof is also showing.

Update 10:  Obama snarks back about outsourcing "jobs overseas."  - Not the point -

Score to Romney.

...... so glad I'm not live-blogging .... :|

Romney again..."Attacking me is not plan."  Defends his position on the auto bailout and says he disagreed with Bush on the auto bailout.  Obama interrupts.  I guess it's not Romney's turn to say "get the transcript" but he doesn't, exactly.  Obama:  "Let's check the record."  If Schieffer pulls out "the record" here, I'm done.

Update 11:  Obama, "Governor Romney, you keep on trying to airbrush history."  I think he's still talking about the auto bailout but he's pivoted to education, the deficit and griping about "the debt we currently have" without, somehow, mentioning that he is the one who has expanded the debt.

Romeny applies the "food stamp president" label on top of Obama's other economic failures.  Romney is coming off as very sincere that people not being able to find jobs "in a nation as prosperous as ours" is "a tragedy."  Very sincere and empathetic.

The end.

Closing.

Obama first.

Obama is pointing at the camera and says Romney wants to "take us back" to the old days where people at the top don't have to play by the same rules. He says he wants to bring jobs back to our shores (but his policies dont show that) and reiterates that the wealthy need to pay more.  His current meme is "nation building here at home" and that through tough times, "we always bounce back."

Romney:

He wants "to see peace," and wants to make "the world a safer place."  He "wants to make sure we get this economy going," which includes a track to a balanced budget.  He promises 12 million new jobs and getting people off food stamps by providing new jobs.  "This nation is the hope of the earth," he says.

Hmmmm.  Who won?

I'm giving this one to Romney only because so much of what Obama said was not true.  I did not believe his rhetoric on Israel or Iran.  Obama seemed thin skinned to me and defensive.

I think Romney should have pressed more on Libya.

I don't think that this debate will tip the scales in Obama's favor given the current "Mittmentum."  Fact checkers will find much fodder in Obama's statements.  That said, I don't think there is all that much difference is some of Romney's positions and Obama's and if so, the question comes to Israel and Iran, to me.  There is difference there.  Obama has a record on both.  And it's not good.

I give this one to Romney, but barely.

Gallup Showing a Romney Trend

The latest poll from Gallup is out and for the sixth time in a row, Romney is 50% or over:

You can download the complete trend here.

That said, I'm notorious for saying that I don't pay attention to the polls.  Much.  I mean, I don't think that we can dismiss them when they don't report what we want them to, then suddenly applaud them when they do.  I think they're just a snapshot of what is happening at the moment and that is all.

Yet then there are trends.

You can play with the electoral map here.

Rasmussen has it Romney 49%, Obama 47% today.

Donald Douglas breaks down the WSJ/NBC poll here:

Mr. Romney has pulled abreast of the president for the first time all year in the Journal poll, erasing a three-point lead among likely voters that Mr. Obama had in late September and a five-point lead earlier that month. Mr. Romney's surge followed his strong debate performance in Denver early this month and a contentious second debate with Mr. Obama last week. 

Donald rightly points out that this election will probably come down to "state by state efforts to get out the vote."

Doug Ross is feeling pretty good about Ohio:

Ohio represents a make-or-break state for both campaigns. And Hamilton County is the bellwether for the state, if the experts are to be believed. Using the 2010 results, Ohio's old District 1 very well could be a lock for Mitt Romney. And if the old OH-1 results hold, Mitt Romney is going to win Ohio by a very safe margin. I'm not in the prediction business, but I'll put a guesstimate in the comments. 

And making my point that polls really can't be trusted all that much, Clifford Thies reports that Nate Silver has gone apoplectic over the Gallup poll:

Nate Silvers, the New York Times poll guru, has gone apoplectic over the Gallup Poll. It - the gold standard of polls - is an outlier poll, he says. Suddenly, the Rasmussen Poll - that tool of the Republicans - is to be preferred. Oh, wait, not really, as it also is pointed toward a Romney win, although not as strongly. No, the new standard is this: polls that show Obama to still be ahead, they are the gold standard, no, wait, can't refer to the gold standard, I mean, the "consensus," and those that show Romney to be ahead are outlier polls.

I have a friend at work who remains flabbergasted that at this point in the election, and with the economy the way it is, why Romney has not widened the gap by now.  That this race remains close is beyond comprehension to him.  I have another friend who sees conspiracy in all the polls and all the media and believes that Romney HAS in fact pulled way ahead and that these latest polls showing a Romney trend simply reflect what can no longer be hidden.

Keep this in mind, too:

The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings project that Democrats will end up with 48 Senate seats, the Republicans 47, with five remaining Toss-Ups—Massachusetts,Montana,  Ohio,  Virginia  and Wisconsin. New polling in the Florida Senate race  shows incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson with a five-point advantage. Democratic Senator Maria Cantwellremains comfortably ahead in her reelection bid in Washington. 

If Romney wins the White House he will certainly need the Senate if he intends to repeal Obamacare.

And so it goes, back and forth...until election day.

Make Plans to Attend the Freedom Rally This Thursday

The Red River Tea Party is holding a long overdue Freedom Rally this week, Thursday, October 25 at the Bossier Civic Center from 5:30 - 7:30.

We've had several Tea Party rallies in Shreveport/Bossier since the first one in 2009 and each one gets better and better.  There will be live music, as always, and in the past there have been booths with groups distributing information (Fair Tax, etc.) or selling concessions.

I can't think of a better thing to do on a beautiful fall day right before the most important national election in recent history.

Scheduled speakers are conservative radio talk show host Moon Griffon, who appeared at the 2010 God and Country Rally.

Also speaking will be veteran Sharon McCullar.  Sharon is also the proud mother of two Marines and is a small business owner.  I've heard her speak at several of these rallies and she is always a highlight.  She's brought me to tears before with her moving and powerful stories.  Her speech at the 2010 Tax Day Tea Party was epic.

Also speaking will be U. S. Senator David Vitter and almost certainly the highlight of the day will be  C. L. Bryant's speech.

I've often told this story, but C. L. showed up at the first Bossier/Shreveport Tea Party in 2009 as just a spectator.  He had his little church in DeSoto Parish and his conservative views, and he came to see the Tea Party.  Organizer Royal Alexander started talking to him in the crowd and pulled him up on stage to speak;  his spontaneous speech that day launched him onto a nationwide platform that has culminated most recently into his acclaimed documentary Runaway Slave.  That documentary is now available in a number of digital download options.



Add this event to your list of things to do this week!  The weather is supposed to be grand, so come on out!

*Date corrected - Thanks Lee Ann!*

Live Blogging Debate No. 2: UPDATED

You ready?

Predictions?

8:10:  First question:  Will I be able to get a job when I graduate?  It goes to Romney first.  Romney spends the first half of his time explaining how college should be affordable and the rest about how hard it is to find a job.  Concludes with "I'm going to change that."  He does not answer the question.  I hate that.

Obama's response - applauds the kid for going to college then lists things he wants to do like build manufacturing jobs (how?), improve education, and then touts energy sources of the future and with a straight face says we have to reduce the deficit and quit paying for wars.

Crowley calls Romney back for a more specific answer.  Romney is just blaming Obama for graduates not being able to find jobs but doesn't list specifically how he's going to change that.

First impression?  The tension between the two candidates is trumping the question from the audience.

Why is it so hard for a politician to just.answer.the.question.?

8:15:  Blame Bush.  #Drink.

Question 2:  An energy questions.  Lie #1:  Obama says he has increased energy production.  "Malarkey!"

Oh, he means "clean energy".  Well, last time I checked, I can't fill up my gas tank with wind.

Romney points out that oil production is down on federal lands and has instituted a moratorium offshore.  Romney is for oil, coal, gas, and renewable energy.  "What we don't need is the president keeping us from taking advantage of our coal, oil and gas."  Romney cites Obama's war on coal.

Romney promises energy independence in eight years.

"How in the world Obama said no to [the Keystone Pipeline] I'll never know."  Score.

Romney scores on this one.

Lie #2:  Obama says we're drilling more on public lands than ever before.  BULL!

Obama tries to make the case that Romney has a war on coal.  What the hellllllll?......

Wow.

Romney's comeback - you've cut licenses in half, Romney says.  "Not true" Obama says. Fact checkers will have a field day with this one.

LMAO!  Obama says the price of gas was low when he came into office because we were on the verge of another depression (translate - Blame Bush #Drink).    He's not taking responsibility for where they are now, however.  In essence, he's saying gas prices are higher because the economy is better?  WTF?

8:25:  Romney is determined to answer Obama's lies; Crowley points out it's not his turn.  Romney is trying to be sort of aggressive here.  Points for that.  Holding his ground.

On this tax question, Romney is solid and specific.  After a vague start with that first question, he's settling into his game.  Obama has been thin skinned, I think, and deceptive.  If he has, in fact, been deceptive, fact checkers will get him.

Obama on taxes is interesting.  Is he going to address the 21 new taxes in Obamacare?

8:35:  I wish Romney would nail Obama on the Obamacare taxes here.

Obama pulls out Big Bird.  #Drink.

Crowley wanders into the weeds about what if Romney's numbers don't add up and he doesn't fall for that.  "Of course they add up," he says, and cites his extensive business experience.

Good response.

And for the record, I think these questions are sort of lame.  Now we have an equality in the workplace question.  Is this the biggest issue we have before us?

8:45:  Romney is making a point to tout his business experience in as many responses as he can.  Plus, I think he's doing a better job at showing pathos and compassion than he has in the past.  It's resonating.

On the pay equality question, Obama somehow leaps to health care.  And touts Planned Parenthood.  Planned Parenthood makes women better workers?  What?  What?!  WTH is he talking about?  (And despite what Obama says, Planned Parenthood does NOT do mammograms.)

Moving along.  Next question.

Romney points out to the "undecided voter" asking him how he will differ from Bush by pointing out that he and Bush are different people.  He cites specifics like clamping down on China with regard to trade, a balanced budget which Bush didn't have (and zings Obama at the same time), and on championing small businesses while Bush was a champion of big business.  Clear, specific answer.

He finishes up with a zinger on how Obamacare is killing small business.  SCORE.

Obama laughs.  Of course.

"We came in during tough times."  #drink.

Obama spends half his time hacking on Bush here.  Someone please tell him that Bush isn't running this year.

8:55:  On a softball question asking about his accomplishments, Obama starts with "Osama bin Laden is dead."  #drink.

Touts Obamacare, reigning in Wall Street, created five million jobs and saved the auto industry.  Fact checkers, please?

Obama says he wants to "control our own energy."   Well yes, he's doing that #NoKeystonePipeline

Romney tells the questioner if you re-elect Obama you'll get a repeat of the last four years, which we can't afford.  Romney is listing what Obama HAS NOT done:  immigration reform, reducing the deficit ("in fact he doubled it"), reduction of health insurance premiums ("they've gone up"), and "he created five million jobs after losing five million jobs."  And then hones in on food stamps.    SCORE.

Romney is specific, on point, and winning.

9:00:  An immigration question.  You going to send us back?

We welcome legal immigrants, he says, and need a streamlined, legal policy.  Green cards stapled to diplomas for math, science, trained people.  Stop illegal immigration.  No amnesty for illegals.  No magnets for illegals.  The kids of illegals should have a pathway such as military service to gain status.

They are both screwing up this woman's name.

Obama's response:  everybody wants to come here.  "We're a nation of laws.  We need to fix a broken immigration system."

OMG he really went there.  More agents on the border.   Someone ask him about Brian Terry, please!  Do those agents get guns with bullets or beanbags?

9:05:  Romney sits in his chair making notes on this response.

Candy Crowley asks Romney about self-deportation but Romney chooses to correct Obama's lies about him.  Candy is miffed.

Romney points out that Obama had the presidency and the Congress for two years yet did nothing with immigration reform.  SCORE.

"I'm not in favor of rounding up people and taking them out of this country," says Romney.

Romney nails Obama on the pension question and Chinese investments.  Candy tells Romney to sit down.  Obama is uneasy on the pension question and says, "I don't check it that often; mine's not as big as yours."  The audience laughs.

Next question:  A Libya question.  This should be good.  It's to Obama first.

Who denied enhanced security and why?

9:15:  Obama says as soon as he found out the embassy was being over run he told them to beef up security.  Wasn't it too late then?

Obama chooses to attack Romney's press release on Libya rather than answer the question.  "You don't turn national security into a political issue!"  

Oh god.  "When it comes to national security, I mean what I say."  Oh lord.  The places I could go.

Bin Laden is dead.  #drink.

Romney:  No demonstration involved; it WAS a terrorist attack but it took days for the American people to hear the truth.  And by the way, on that same day, Obama went to Las Vegas.  SCORE.

Romney points out that he should have been tending to national security business rather than campaigning.  Moving on to Iran, Israel and leading from behind.

Crowley asks about Hillary taking responsibility and asks if the buck doesn't stop with him.  #setup

Obama says he was in the Rose Garden the day after the attack and said it was an act of terror and that he would hunt the perpetrators down.  He's offended that anyone would play politics or mislead.  "That's not what we do."  Really?

But he did.

Romney pins him down:  On the day after the attack did you say it was an act of terror?  Not a spontaneous demonstration?

Candy backs Obama, Obama says "get the transcript," the audience applauds.  Romney presses the issue.  Cites Susan Rice going on five talk shows saying it was a spontaneous event.

Wow.  This last question about AK47s calls for a Fast and Furious answer from Romney.

Will it come?

Closing:  Obama - lets get automatic weapons out of the hands of killers and the mentally ill.  What about Mexican drug dealers?

Romney: not in favor of taking guns away.  Automatic weapons are already illegal.

Yeah!  There he goes!  Fast and furious!

Obama gave guns to drug lords who killed their own citizens.  "For what purpose this was put in place, I can't imagine!"  SCORE!!!!!

Double score:  Obama invoked executive privilege in the investigation.  Candy reroutes him back to assault weapons.

That's okay - he got it in.

Obama's comeback?  He's struggling.  He's in the weeds here about community colleges and education.  No comeback on Fast and Furious from Obama.

On the terror/Libya question - in the speech Obama referred to in the Rose Garden, he said:

"No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for.  Today we mourn four more Americans who represent the very best of the United States of America.  We will not waver in our commitment to see that justice is done for this terrible act.  And make no mistake, justice will be done."

Yet multiple times after when he was asked, he refused to call it terror.

Semantics?  Same thing?  You be the judge.

On an outsourcing question, Crowley asks who will bring Apple back from China.  Romney says we have to make America more attractive for jobs, cites regulations, lower taxes for business, etc.  Obama concedes that some jobs will never come back and blathers about tax cuts for people who don't need them.

Romney interjects:  "Government does not create jobs!"

Question:  What do you believe is the biggest misconception the American people have about you...".

Lame.

Romney insists that he cares about 100% of the American people, our kids, and says his passion flows from the fact that he believes in God.  Cites his compassion for people out of work and says he saved the Olympics.  #drink.    Romney then wafts off into what we don't have to settle for, thus blowing the chance to paint himself as a human rather than the robot many undecideds think he is.

Obama:  I don't think government creates jobs!  #LIE!  He suddenly believes in self-reliance.  Lightning just struck the White House.

He said it with a straight face, too!

Obama comes out with the 47% comment.    And puts it out of context.

Hmmm.  Who won?  I'm not sure Romney won the Libya Rose Garden question.  Obama's staff (Rice) blamed the video yet Obama says he blamed terror in his speech.  Which is it?  You can't have it both ways. Does your staff not represent you?

I think when you sift through the lies Obama put out there, Romney was more accurate.  Romney was appropriately confrontational without being Joe-Biden-Rude.  Obama was more assertive, but he lied a lot.

Draw.

Live-Blogging the Ryan/Biden Debate - UPDATED

The VP debate begins in a couple of hours.

While we're waiting, anyone want to explain to me HOW Team Obama can blame the events in Benghazi on Romney/Ryan?

Allapundit:

"...a cornered flack falls back on her most basic impulse in a desperate situation: She blames the other party for making a big deal out of nothing. And by “nothing,” I mean the murder of the U.S. ambassador and three American consulate personnel."

Go here for the video.

You think Libya will come up tonight?

Are we not allowed to ask questions about national security anymore?

Added:  Krauthammer:  "Nobody died in Watergate." 

Wall Street Journal calls the debate for Biden and we're still thirty minutes from the start. 

Ace is lowering expectations; it's a good point.  Getting cocky is always bad. 

7:45:  I'm watching pre-game on CSPAN.  Frank Fahrenkoph is asking people in the audience not to Tweet for 90 minutes.  Fat chance. 

Hey, did you see Paul Ryan's TIME photo shoot? 

8:00:  Here we go.

8:05:   Libya right out of the gate - AND Raddatz calls it a pre-planned assault and a terrorist attack.  Biden vows to "get to the bottom of it" yet pivots to Afghanistan.  She asked about Libya.  First Osama bin Laden reference.  Let's count them!

8:10:  Ryan's first response to the question hammers on the YouTube video blame game.   "Now they're trying to blame the Romney/Ryan ticket for making this an issue!"  He's incredulous.  Biden is squinting.  

Good one:  Ryan points out that we should have spoken out sooner on the Iran Green Revolution as he defends Romney's speaking out on Libya.

"That's a bunch of malarkey," says Biden.    "Be specific," says Raddatz.   

Biden says "These guys bet against America all the time!"  WTH is he talking about?

He falls back to the "bad intelligence" excuse.

8:15:   Ryan is steady, in command of his facts and Biden is over there laughing at Ryan and smirking.  That ought to backfire on Biden.

8:20: "Bibi's been my friend for 39 years!" says Biden.  Condescending.  Biden swears Obama/Biden "will not allow" Iran to get a nuclear weapon; "Iran is more isolated today than they were when we took office!"  Talk about malarkey!

Biden's smirking, eye rolling, and outright laughing at Paul Ryan is bad form.  "Facts matter!"  Biden says.  Well yes, Joe, they do.

Switching to the economy now.

8:25:   Biden opens the economy segment by talking about the mess Bush left.  And there's the 47% comment.  Ryan ought to be on solid ground on this topic.

Biden wants to "level the playing field."  Translate:  socialism.

As Ryan points out the high unemployment rate Biden outright laughs at him. 

Biden says Republicans just need "to get out of the way."  Ryan rebounds with the reminder that they came in with one party control and passed a stimulus.

Biden continues to laugh, smirk and call Paul Ryan his "friend."

Ryan:  "Was it a good idea to borrow all this money from China?"

Ryan:  "Where are the five million green jobs?"

Moving on to Medicare.

8:40:   Ryan:  Obamacare takes $716 billion from Medicare to pay for Obamacare.  Obamacare's board will lead to denied care for current seniors.  Biden:  "Gawd I heard that death panel debate from Sarah Palin."

Biden talks right to the camera now, to seniors:  Do you have more benefits today than you used to?

As Ryan tries to make his case Biden interrupts him then laughs at him.  Ryan needs to get aggressive here.

8:45:   Why does Raddatz keep letting Biden interrupt Ryan and step on his time?  (Rhetorical question).

Biden's strategy seems to be interrupt everything Ryan says so that Ryan can't make a point and Raddatz lets him.  Again, Ryan needs to be more aggressive.

Moving on to taxes.  Biden gets his two minute opening.  Note:  Ryan does not interrupt.

Ryan's turn:  thirty seconds in, Biden shaking his head and smirking.  Ryan is in command of his facts and statistics as he points out the faults of taxing small businesses.  Ryan takes his turn to look into the camera:  "Look out middle class!  The tax bill is coming to YOU!"

Ryan does, however, get through his two minutes without an interruption this time.  Lots of smirking and outright laughing by Biden though.  Obnoxious.

8:50:   Raddatz is doing nothing to reign Biden in and Biden is making an ass out of himself.  As Ryan touts bipartisanship and Jack Kennedy, Biden says, "Oh NOW you're Jack Kennedy!?"

Between Raddatz and Biden, Ryan has a hard time completing a thought; that said, he's doing well just staying on his feet.

Pivoting to defense now.  Raddatz and Biden are now double teaming Ryan.  Ryan points out that a small defense invites weakness.  Biden denies cuts to defense and asserts that sequestration is what the Republicans wanted.  Ryan is getting his sea legs and getting a little more aggressive.

Raddatz cuts Ryan off yet again to move on to Afghanistan.

9:00:  Ooops - another bin Laden reference from Biden.  #DRINK

In case al Qaeda didn't know when we were pulling out of Afghanistan?  2014.  Says Joe.

Thanks Paul Ryan:  We don't want to put our draw down date on our enemies calendar.

Biden:  That's a bizarre statement.

Good grief.

Raddatz:  Do you think the Taliban is taking advantage of this timeline?  Duh!!!

Now Raddatz is schooling Biden on how the military follows orders.  Is Ryan still here?

9:05:   Ryan makes the case that our soldiers in Afghanistan are less safe because they're doing the same mission with less people; Biden says that the Afghans should step up.  Now we're arguing about fighting seasons.  "The calendar works the same every year," says Ryan.

Biden's philosophy:  It's Afghanistan's problem now.

To Syria:  Biden profoundly pronounces Syria "a different country."

9:10:   Bless his heart, Paul Ryan is trying to stay steady on on track but Biden misrepresents everything and interrupts constantly.  I think Ryan isn't aggressive enough or a big enough blow hard to keep up with Joe.  Plus, in general, Americans are tired of our presence in Afghanistan, I think, so Biden is probably winning on this one.  I think Ryan is winning on argument but Biden's personality is overshadowing the facts.

9:15:  Abortion.  And Raddatz notes they are both Catholic.  "Please talk personally about this, if you could," she says.

Ryan is pro-life but not just because of his Catholic faith.  Because of reason and science, too, he says.  "I believe life begins at conception."  Ryan tells a personal story about his first child's ultrasound where she looked like a "bean."  And then saw the heartbeat.

You can hear Biden laughing in the background.

Ryan:  Now the Democratic party supports abortion without restriction and WITH taxpayer funding.

Biden's turn:  "My religion defines who I am."  Biden says he accepts that life begins at conception but refuses to impose his faith on other people.

Ryan says the Romney administration will oppose abortion "with exceptions."

9:25:  Biden reminds us that the next president will get one or two Supreme Court nominations.  Thanks for that reminder.

Raddatz is closing with a question about the negativity and tone of the campaign.  Biden is wandering in the weeds somewhere about Romney/Ryan stepping on the middle class.  Romney has made "slipshod comments" Biden says.  He would know one.

Ryan:  Obama ran on Hope and Change and is now running on blame and defame.  Points to all the broken promises (health care:  You can keep your insurance!)  Ryan points to 21 tax increases in Obamacare, 12 of which hit the middle class.  No credible budget from Obama in four years.  We speeches from this administration, not leadership. 

Biden interrupts, of course, and asks for equal time even though his time came first.

And Raddatz gives it to him.  I'd be interested to see the talk time numbers on this one.

Raddatz attempts to cut Ryan off as he tries to defend himself.  Of course.

Closing:  Ryan point to their five point plan, proven pro growth policies, etc.  Biden gets testy with Raddatz as she tells him he has fifteen seconds.  "He gets 40 and I get 15."  Cry baby.

Biden gets first closing statement. 
Inherited.
47%.
Scranton.
Level the playing field.
Even shot.

Ryan's turn.
Big choice.
Not a real recovery.
Reforms.
Recovery.
Responsibility.

Hmm.  Who won?  I think Ryan held his own and Biden made points, too.  I'd actually call it a draw.  Not the steamrolling that conservatives anticipated at any rate.

Biden was obnoxious and if anything, that could play against him, but I think people just expect that from him by now.  I don't think this debate will change the current Romney momentum.

We get to do this again in less than a week with the next presidential debate coming on Tuesday.
Job creator.